Poll results in Western countries hold lessons for politicians everywhere, including India
German voters didn’t surprise in Sunday’s election. Since no party has a clear majority, long coalition talks lie ahead, but far-right AfD will remain out of govt even though it has over a fifth of the vote, exactly double its 2021 share. When the far-right or a Trump-like leader surges, it means voters are hurting. And Germany’s economic troubles are well-known. After shrinking for two straight years, the economy is back at its 2019 level. Low unemployment and moderate fiscal deficit are virtues ordinarily, but not when voters wake up feeling poorer every day. And voter pessimism certainly isn’t conducive to re-election – ask Kamala Harris and Rishi Sunak.
Sunak called an early election counting on British economy’s unexpected growth last year. Inflation was cooling finally, so were interest rates. But as far as voters were concerned, prices were about 20% too high and their EMIs had ballooned. A survey found only one in five Britons thought the economy was in good shape. The same popular mood ousted Democrats in US. Before the Nov election, about half of US voters said they were worse off than they had been at the end of Trump’s first term, even though inflation had slumped from 9% in 2022 to around 2% by late last year. China, despite its one-party dictatorship, is also worried about public mood. A survey by Harvard-Stanford academics in 2023 showed less than 30% of Chinese felt they were better off than they had been five years earlier – a huge fall from 75% in 2014. China’s trying everything to fire up the economy, with sub-5% growth predicted for 2025 and 2026.
It’s time Indian leaders also paid heed to the public mood. Their increasing reliance on doles and direct benefit transfers to win polls is bad economics, even if it wins polls in the short-term. As state after state, from Himachal to Punjab, Maharashtra and Karnataka, has realised, delivering freebies – whatever form it takes – and generous cash handouts is hard to maintain. Maharashtra’s 50% fare concession to women and senior citizens, for instance, is costing the state transport corporation Rs 3cr a day. Besides, doles don’t address voters’ need to feel better off over a longer period of time. A cash transfer generates a small amount of feel-good. It doesn’t buy economic security. Only rapid economic growth plus good jobs can deliver that.
This piece appeared as an editorial opinion in the print edition of The Times of India.
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