Vikram Misri, India’s Foreign Secretary, visited Beijing (26-27 January 2025) for a meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Vice Foreign Minister H.E. Mr Sun Weidong, “to review the India-China bilateral relations comprehensively and take certain people-centric steps to stabilize and rebuild ties.” Significantly, both China and India mentioned that the meeting was a follow-up to the meeting of PM Modi and Xi Jinping at Kazan in October 2024.
During the visit, a few positive steps were taken. Both sides agreed to resume the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra in the summer of 2025. This Yatra was suspended for several years, which has great significance for Hindus. The two sides also agreed to increase interactions between media outlets, think tanks, and academic institutions. In addition, both countries agreed to resume direct air services.
The two sides agreed that 2025, the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between India and China, should be used to redouble public diplomacy efforts, create better awareness about each other, and restore mutual trust and confidence among the public. The two sides will conduct several commemorative activities to mark this anniversary.
However, a close analysis of the statements from the two nations at this meeting reveals the differences in their priorities. India and China are not on one page as far as the restoration of normal relations between the two nations is concerned. While China has been pushing for restoring normal relations and placing the border issue on the back-burner, India considers that without normalcy at the border, normal bilateral relations are not feasible.
Crucially, the statement released by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) China reflects that India is close to accepting the Chinese version of normalcy. Its wordings give the impression that India and China have not only conducted the dialogues but also resolved the differences. It states: “Vikram Misri said that India and China have conducted a series of beneficial dialogues and communications in accordance with the consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries in Kazan, properly managed and resolved differences, and promoted the restart of practical cooperation in various fields.”
On the other hand, the Indian version stated that ‘it was agreed to resume the dialogues step by step and to utilize them to address each other’s priority areas of interest and concern.’ This indicated that only they had agreed to take steps to address the issues and not that they had resolved the differences. There is no doubt that disengagement has taken place at two more places (Demchok and Depsang) but the situation is still far from being normal. Recently, the Indian Army Chief had stated that a “degree” of standoff existed between Indian and Chinese militaries in the region and both sides needed to sit down and firm up a broader understanding on how to calm down the situation and restore trust. The MEA spokesperson later clarified that there was no contradiction between the position taken by the Indian Foreign Minister. Jaishankar had stated that the task of de-escalation remained to be addressed.
Another interesting aspect is the focus of Beijing which reveals its main objective. The Chinese Embassy in India stated that the Indian side agreed to extend full support for Chinese presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and would actively participate in the meetings under its umbrella. This dimension is missing in Ministry of External Affairs indicating that this was not the important issue in the meeting.
From India’s point of view, the priority was the exchange of hydrological data and cooperation pertaining to trans-border rivers. Since the 25th December 2024, when China announced its decision to build a mega dam near the bend on the Brahmaputra River, India has been concerned about the timely exchange of hydrological data. In 2018, China did not share the data with India, while it shared with Bangladesh. This was despite India paying for such data. The result was that India was not prepared for the floods that caused havoc in Assam. With this mega-dam, the timely availability of hydrological data is essential to take precautionary measures. In this meeting, China and India agreed to convene an early meeting of the India-China Expert Level Mechanism to discuss the resumption of hydrological data sharing.
China also added a sermon given by the Chinese side. The Chinese Embassy statement reads: “The Chinese side stressed that both sides should view and handle China-India relations on the basis of the fundamental interests of the two countries and two peoples and from a strategic height and long-term perspective, actively advance exchanges and practical cooperation with a candid and constructive attitude, guide the public opinion in a positive way, enhance mutual trust, and properly handle differences, so as to promote the development of China-India relations along the sound and stable track.” Similarly, Wang Yi also told Misri that “the two sides should seize the opportunity, meet each other halfway, explore more substantive measures, and commit to mutual understanding, mutual support, and mutual achievement.” China subtly indicated to stay away from the US: a Chinese refrain since the formation of the Quad. Significantly, India is to host the next Quad Summit.
Given the above, while some positive developments have taken place, China is reluctant to normalise the situation at the border. Within a week after the two Special Representatives for border talks met to initiate the process of resolution of the border problem, China created two counties in Hotan (it includes areas occupied by China since 1962) and announced the construction of a mega-dam on the Brahmaputra River after denying it several times in the past. The deficit of mutual trust remains wide between the two countries. While China has some geopolitical and domestic pressure to maintain peace with India, its basic policy of expansionism has not changed. China uses peace overtures to gain time and to divert the attention of the International Community. In essence, China is playing diplomatic guerrilla warfare with India: making agreements/peace overtures and then violating them. Hence India needs to remain cautious of the Chinese sinister designs at the LAC and its machinations in our neighbourhood.
Disclaimer
Views expressed above are the author’s own.
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